Global cotton production in 2011 is difficult to become the focus of speculation

Recently, the National Development and Reform Commission announced the amount of import tariff quotas for China's grain and cotton in 2012, of which cotton quota was 894,000 tons. This import quota amount has remained unchanged since 2004.

Ningbo Customs statistics show that from January to July this year, Ningbo Port imported 21,000 tons of cotton, a decrease of 51.6% from the same period of last year, and the amount of imports was 74.17 million USD, down by 0.6%. In terms of unit price, the average import price was US$3,535 per ton, which was a 1.1-fold increase over the same period of last year and higher than domestic cotton prices. The high price is an important reason for the rapid decrease in the quantity of imported cotton since the first half of the year.

The domestic cotton production in the new year is a foregone conclusion. According to the latest forecast data, domestic cotton production in 2011/12 is expected to reach 7.403 million tons, with a consumption of 10.015 million tons and a domestic shortage of approximately 2.6 million tons. However, consumption in the downstream market has not yet improved, and in the global environment of high cotton production, the contradiction between supply and demand is difficult to once again become the focus of market speculation.

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