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The US dollar suffered a double blow on Friday (June 26). First, all aspects of PMI data are not as expected, manufacturing PMI reached a low point since September last year, indicating that the US economy is slowing down. Second, St. Louis Fed President Bradzhny said that the 2% GDP growth target is difficult to change in the short term, and the Fed can suspend interest rate hikes. This is the second time he made similar remarks this week, which has dealt a heavy blow to the dollar.
iFOREX analyst ROC believes that the Fed’s No. 3 character Dudley’s hawkish speech once helped the US dollar index rebound to a one-month high. Spot gold once hit a new low of $1240.97 per ounce in a month; subsequently, it was not represented by economic data such as the US Markit manufacturing PMI. Good, the market began to question the Fed’s rate hike process. The fall in oil prices also dragged down the market’s inflation expectations. The dollar retreated some of its gains and gold stabilized.
Euro dollar
Although the euro zone's comprehensive PMI in June was also not as good as expected, Italy's Yuxin Bank economist Campanella said in a research report on Friday that although the decline was slightly higher than expected, on a quarterly basis, the data meant The annualized growth rate of GDP will reach more than 2.5%, which is still the highest level in six years. After the data was released, the exchange rate of the euro against the US dollar rose.
Pivot point: 1.1162
Support level: 1.1100 1.1035 1.0860
Resistance level: 1.1208 1.1253 1.1300
Option 1: Do more than 1.1162, look at 1.1208 1.1253
Option 2: Short below 1.1162, look down 1.1100 1.1035
Comments: On the daily chart, the exchange rate gained support at 23.6% of the recent gains, located near 1.1125, before the low point was around 1.1109, if it breaks, it will expand the decline. In addition, the exchange rate cannot break through the MA20, which constitutes short-term resistance. The technical indicators are trying to move up and are located in the neutral zone. Lack of kinetic energy. In the 4 hours chart, MA20 and MA200 coincided at around 1.1160, strengthening the support area, and the technical indicators fell moderately in the positive area. In general, the downside potential is limited. During the day, the euro was 1.1165 long, with a stop loss of 30 points and a target of 1.1205.
Dollar yen
The weak US economic data offset the Fed’s hawkish argument. The Japanese manufacturing data was weaker than expected. The yen did not rise. The Nikkei manufacturing index fell to a seven-month low of 52.0, with a previous value of 53.1 and a futures value of 53.4. Japan will release inflation data for May, which is expected to rise moderately. Although the Bank of Japan plans to maintain easing, if the inflation data rises, it is expected that the Bank of Japan may withdraw its volume in advance.
Pivot point: 110.20
Support level: 109.80 109.30 108.70
Resistance level: 110.67 111.10 111.70
Option 1: Do more than 110.20, look at 110.67 111.10
Option 2: Short below 110.20, see 109.80 109.30
Comments: After a long period of high sideways volatility, the exchange rate has shown signs of adjustment in 4 hours, and the trend of bulls has not changed in the near future. In the 1 hour chart, it is still in the sideways, but today's callback is low, which is exactly the 61.8% position of yesterday's lowest point. It is a strong callback, and the current exchange rate has once again broken through the moving average. Although it is now fluctuating, it is obviously bullish in the future. . During the day, the US and Japan were 111.15 long, with a stop loss of 30 points and a target of 111.85.
gold
In terms of precious metals, from the trend of last week, the price of gold has become the matchmaking puppet of the Federal Reserve. The different attitudes of several officials have caused the price of gold to fluctuate accordingly. On Friday, NYMEX gold futures for August delivery rose $7 or 0.6% to $1,256.40 per ounce, but still fell 10 cents from the previous week, falling for the third consecutive week. At the same time, the price of silver futures for July delivery also rose 13.8 cents, or 0.8%, to 16.647 US dollars / ounce, but fell slightly by 1 cent last week.
Pivot point: 1260
Support position
Resistance level
Option 1: Short below 1260, look at 1252 1244
Option 2: Do more than 1260, look at 1272 1283
Comments: Gold sees 1260 resistance short, if the market really goes according to expectations, maybe this week will fall to 1230 area, or even if it can not reach 1230, the second test to test 1241 support is always needed; daytime trend, gold 1260 Short, stop loss 5 dollars, target 1250 1243.
silver
In terms of precious metals, from the trend of last week, the price of gold has become the matchmaking puppet of the Federal Reserve. The different attitudes of several officials have caused the price of gold to fluctuate accordingly. On Friday, NYMEX gold futures for August delivery rose $7 or 0.6% to $1,256.40 per ounce, but still fell 10 cents from the previous week, falling for the third consecutive week. At the same time, the price of silver futures for July delivery also rose 13.8 cents, or 0.8%, to 16.647 US dollars / ounce, but fell slightly by 1 cent last week.
Pivot point: 17.00
Support level: 16.84 16.35 16.00
Resistance level: 17.40 17.75 18.10
Option 1: Short below 17.00, look at 16.84 16.35
Option 2: Do more than 17.00, look at 17.40 17.75
Comments: Silver, this round of adjustment temporarily rebounded to 16.3, in the case of not adjusting below the low level before falling below 16, silver can not fall below 16 before the low. According to the adjustment of the Golden Week, silver should be blocked first, and then re-explored. The main hope is to go down again, instead of the rebound at the end of last week, then the short-term 16.80 short space 0, stop loss 17.00, target 16.40.
crude
Since the middle of last week, news of boosting oil prices has gradually increased. Crude oil futures prices closed higher on Friday (June 23), but fell in the overall transaction last week. NYMEX August delivery of WTI crude oil futures prices rose 0.27 US dollars or 0.6% to 43.01 US dollars / barrel; ICE August delivery of Brent crude oil futures prices also rose 0.32 US dollars or 0.7% to 45.54 US dollars / barrel, but from the week In terms of the line, the US and the two oils fell by 4.4% and 3.9% respectively this week, falling for the fifth consecutive week.
Pivot point: 46.10
Support level: 45.60 45.30 44.80
Resistance level: 46.70 47.30 48.00
Option 1: Short below 46.10, look at 45.60 45.30
Option 2: Do more than 46.10, see 46.70 47.30
Comments: Last week, the crude oil at the end of the week was relatively resistant. See if there is any chance of idling this week. The non-agricultural high point 44.2 is a long and short watershed. If the market is going to rise, the first step is to break through the resistance point. Pay attention to the monthly line. The problem of the line-up is now Dayin, and this month is only the last week. If the rebound does not go up, then the market may have to deviate from the shock of this year to some extent. Before the market fell 47, it rebounded to 54 and fell again to 43.7. 52, this wave is now down to 42 to see if it is about to start to rebound, the short-term is still in the low-level small shock rebound, first focus on the resistance of 43.70-44.00. During the day, the US crude oil was 43.10 long, with a stop loss of 45 points and a target of 44.00.
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